Slide 11 of 14
Notes:
Benzene concentrations are not as high in fuel oil as say gasoline, and there were no major releases in this area, so it was not expected that the soil concentrations would not be above the target level. A fraction of 0.1 and a variance of 0.1 was assigned to this area. However, 2 out of 12 soil samples in this area had benzene concentrations above the target level. Thus, the distribution shifts to the right as the mean fraction increases to approximately 0.14. With actual data, the variance gets smaller as well. This graph is the heart of the whole Bayesian concept.
